Dubai’s private sector reports Q3 upswing

Dubai private sector companies have reported a positive start to the third quarter of 2016, with overall business conditions improving at the fastest pace since March 2015.

This was highlighted by a rise in the headline seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index from 54.6 in June to 55.9 in July.

The index – a composite indicator designed to give an accurate overview of operating conditions in the non-oil private sector economy – revealed the best-performing sub-sector was wholesale & retail (index at 57.3 in July), followed by travel & tourism (55.1) and construction (53.5). In each case, the latest readings were above the crucial 50.0 no-change value.

The headline Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker Index is derived from individual diffusion indices that measure changes in output, new orders, employment, suppliers’ delivery times and stocks of purchased goods.

A reading of below 50.0 indicates that the non-oil private sector economy is generally declining; above 50.0, that it is generally expanding. A reading of 50.0 signals no change.

The survey covers the Dubai non-oil private sector economy, with additional sector data published for travel & tourism, wholesale & retail and construction.

“The improvement in the Dubai Economy Tracker index in July is consistent with the rise in the whole UAE Purchasing Managers Index last month, and is underpinned by stronger new work and output growth,” noted Khatija Haque, head of MENA research at Emirates NBD.

“The wholesale & retail sector in particular probably benefitted from holiday spending over Eid.”

Higher levels of business activity have now been recorded for five consecutive months, following a moderate decline seen in February.